The Imperial Shadow Council: Japan in Darkest Hour

Chief Savage Man · Apr 30, 2017

Part One: The Council Convenes

The car is comfortably appointed, but claustrophobic. You can’t see out the windows at all, they’ve been blacked out. Your family is in another car. “Security measures” they said. As one of Japan’s leading thinkers, you have seen a lot of things and traveled the world, but this is the most bizarre thing that has ever happened to you. The men came to your home in the middle of the night. They were armed like soldiers but not dressed like them. They told you that you had six hours to pack up everything you and your family wanted to take with you. To where? You still don’t know.

The car stops. You have spent the last four hours wondering if you would be executed when the car arrived at wherever it was going, but no… it wouldn’t take this long for your captors to bring you to a place where they could kill you without anybody watching. The door opens. Cold air and snow rushes in. You step out of the car to see that you are at the foot of a large snow-capped mountain. Your captors get out of the front of the car and rush over to you.

“Come with us.”

“Where is my family?” you say to them.

“They are being housed in your quarters. You will be able to see them in a few hours. They are well.”

The two men each grab one of your arms and rush you towards a humble-looking structure that resembles a shrine. They somehow manage to be both gentle and urgent in the manner in which they escort you. One of the men goes inside the building and closes the door behind him. A lurching noise comes from within the building. He then opens the door again. There is a staircase that leads down to… somewhere.

The men whisk you through the guard post in the tunnel. Once you pass the guards, the atmosphere suddenly changes from the concrete austerity of a military bunker to the kind of décor you’d expect from an upper-class home in Tokyo. Finally, the men take you to a large set of double doors. As they open, you see a crowd of faces turning to look at you.

You recognize many of them immediately. They are your old classmates, men and women who you’ve debated, your rivals, your friends. This room contains the crème de la crème of the Japanese intelligentsia. There is one seat at the grand table open. It’s yours, obviously.

Just as you sit, the doors at the other end of the long room swing open. Out walks, in his full regalia, His Majesty Emperor Hirohito. Standing beside him is Her Majesty Empress Nagako. You have seen the Emperor before, but never this close. The entire room, including you, stands to bow to their sovereign. After the formalities are over, the Emperor begins to speak.

“My friends, loyal subjects, loyal citizens of Japan, you are doubtless wondering why you are here. I have brought you to this place because Japan is on the eve of dark and uncertain times.”

The room is unsettled by this. What is he talking about?

“The world is headed towards a conflagration that will dwarf the one of two decades past. The rivalry between the German Empire and the syndicalists will end in war, I am sure of it. This presents us with dangers and opportunities. I have many advisors and supposed servants who are supplicants to my face, yet scheme behind my back. The Japanese government is rife with factions, and it is nearly impossible for me to get the kind of honest advice I need to serve my subjects. That is why you are here. This is the Imperial Shadow Council. The Army and Navy know not of its existence. You are hidden away in this mountain palace so that you may work without fear of knives in the dark or bombs in your cars. I will ask you for advice when Japan needs direction, and it is your responsibility to convene and decide what the best course of action would be.”

His speech continues for a few more minutes, and then he leaves. He leaves behind a small bespectacled man in his late fifties or sixties.

“Hello, Councillors. Allow me to explain to you how this council will work.”

He goes into his explanation:

Italic text indicates out of narrative explanations that serve as a guide to how this LP will work and how your voting operates.

The Council, which is all of the readers, will vote on Policies. There are far too many events to have you vote on every single one, but Policies will be decided at various points in order to dictate how I choose event options. Policies encompass more than just event choices. There may be a point where I see an opportunity for an attack that has nothing to do with an event. I would put this up for a vote. There may be a great war where there’s not an obvious route forward tactically. This would also be a vote.

Each Policy voting period will be an opportunity for debate in the thread. By no means do I expect everybody to roleplay as actual Showa-era Japanese intelligentsia, but if you do want to roleplay, I encourage you to make your own fun with it. This does not include roleplaying the sensitive aspects of the World War 2 era. I do not want to see anybody, whether ironically or roleplaying, espousing racist or genocidal viewpoints. For example: it’s fine if you want to go on about how Japan is destined to lead the other Asian nations so we should invade x, y and z. It is not fine if you want to go on about how Chinese people are intellectually inferior to Japanese people, or whatever. Use your head.

When a vote involves more than one option, the outcome will be decided through Instant Runoff Voting, like how the nation vote worked. This means that you should rank your preferences. The options with the lowest preferences at each round will be eliminated and their second preferences distributed to other candidates until one candidate has more than 50% support. I will post to end voting at a certain point in order to give me time to play the game according to the votes. This avoids the problem of tactical voting and similar options cannibalizing each other’s votes so that a third option that a minority of people like wins out. Use the following format or something similar:

Afghanistan Policy:

a) Leave Afghanistan Alone

b) Establish a Puppet in Afghanistan

c) Annex Afghanistan

d) Attempt to Ally Afghanistan

If your first preference is to annex Afghanistan, your second preference to is to puppet Afghanistan and your third preference is to leave them alone, you would vote: C-B-A. If you wish to change your vote, post again. I will not be looking for edits. I will keep track of votes in an Excel sheet and whatever your latest vote is will be the one that will count. Since this LP is posted on four forums, the votes from all four forums will be combined into one. If the thread is dead on any of those forums, then I encourage anybody reading there to go to Something Awful and participate in that thread since it is doubtlessly going to be the most active.

There are two Policy Votes at the end of this first chapter that will show the format used for the votes. I will provide one or more in-universe justifications from in-universe figures, like Japanese Diet members or Army officers, that explain a potential reason to want to choose each particular option. I’m writing the justifications for the purposes of fun and flavor and voting for a Policy doesn’t mean you agree with the justification provided for it. Come up with your own justification and push it in the thread if it pleases you. There will also be spoilered explanations of what will happen in game terms with each Policy option.

Most of all, have some fun! I’m hoping this will be good fun.

As your new boss finishes up his explanation, aides begin to pass out folders to everybody at the table. They contain classified information about a variety of important things:

There are reports about the foreign powers in the region. Australasia, of the Entente, could be an ally or an enemy.

Germany is the big fish in the world, and Japan’s road to greatness may go through the German Empire and its Pacific colonies.

Russia, a tottering liberal democracy, could be a target or could resurge into a dangerous enemy.

The Qing Empire could also be a target for imperial expansion or a dangerous foe.

The same could be said for Mongolia in the northwest.

The Dutch East Indies… tempting, though the Germans wouldn’t be happy.

The Philippines too… And is America even in any position to do anything about it?

Japan is in a unique position in the Asia-Pacific region. Its industry is unmatched in Asia, though it requires a great deal of resources not present in the Home Islands.

’36 Infantry is also being researched.

Our technological prowess is similarly unique in Asia.

The reports describe that naval production is taking up a great deal of Japanese industrial capacity at this moment.

The bespectacled man allows everybody to finish reading the reports before speaking again.

“Councilors, before we conclude this first session of the Imperial Shadow Council, there is a matter that must be decided. Remember that you are tasked with doing what you think is best for the empire and its people. Good luck.”

POLICY VOTE 1: The Domestic Politics of Japan

PROBLEM: The upcoming election will be important as it determines if the Rikken Seiyukai will retain their absolute majority and the Shadow Council and the Emperor will be in a position to influence its outcome. Should we attempt to change the status quo or should we allow other parties besides the conservative Rikken Seiyukai to attain power?

Option A: The Conservatives Should Retain the Absolute Majority

The government becomes even more right-wing.

”There must be order in these trying times, and I hope that the Seiyukai retain their majority in order to allow the government to react immediately to dangers, rather than get caught up in the problems that come with having to negotiate with other less patriotic parties.” - Shigeyuki Fukumoto, IJA Officer

Option B: The Conservatives Should Lose the Absolute Majority

The government becomes more democratic.

”The Seiyukai’s power has inspired complacency, and it causes the populace that sits on the center and left to believe that their voices mean nothing. The voiceless often turn to violence, and so it would be best for other parties to have a say to benefit the stability of Japan.” - Hiromichi Tanikawa, IJN Officer

POLICY VOTE 2: Dealing with Dissidents

PROBLEM: The economic situation had led to radicalism spreading. There is bound to be violence and possibly even open revolt against the government. How should the government respond to incidents of dissidence?

Option A: The Olive Branch

The government will try to avoid repressive measures when dealing with dissidents, opting instead for negotiation and reform to head off unrest.

”It would be foolishness to try and do battle against every angry citizen. The people are angry because there are real problems, and we would be best served if we were to try and redress their concerns, not punish them like misbehaving children.” - Yasunobu Kuwabara, Liberal member of the Diet

Option B: The Sword

The government will opt for repressive measures when dealing with events regarding dissidents.

”These people forget who they serve. If they are suffering, then it is their duty to suffer while the nation navigates difficult times. We should not negotiate with these traitors, because it will only inspire further perfidy.” - Seigo Yasuda, Conservative member of the Diet

emperorpenguin · Apr 30, 2017

I think it should be Option A and Option A.

Chief Savage Man · May 5, 2017

The bespectacled man, who has now introduced himself as Mr. Nakamura, is pleased to hear that VOTING IS CLOSED and the council has reached consensus. He listens to the council's appointed spokesperson explain the rationale of the council's decision:

The Election:

SA Vote: The Conservatives Lose the Majority has 31 votes against 8 votes for The Conservatives Retain the Majority
Non SA Vote: One vote for The Conservatives Retain the Majority

The Conservatives Lose the Majority wins 31-9.

Dissident Policy:

SA Vote: The Olive Branch has 33 votes against 6 votes for The Sword
Non SA Vote: One vote for The Olive Branch

The Olive Branch wins 34-6.

Mr. Nakamura chuckles softly.

"I am shocked to learn that this group of intellectuals has liberal sympathies."

The sarcasm in his voice is evident but not nasty.

"I will take this to the Emperor. You may all go to your quarters now. We will call for you when we require your services again."

Chief Savage Man · May 11, 2017

Part Two: Incident After Incident

Mr. Nakamura strolls into the room. He has already informed the Council that this meeting would be an important one, where he would ask for further official recommendations for the Emperor. Nevertheless, you’re taken aback by how tired he looks. Your life in the Council has been the nicest captivity you could ever imagine. The secluded mountain bunker in one of the Emperor’s private estates in the remote mountains of Hokkaido is a far cry from the cosmopolitan pleasures you’re used to, but there is a peace here that you appreciate. Your family has integrated into the makeshift community nicely. The foundation of all of this seclusion, secrecy and safety is the hard work of Mr. Nakamura. The rumor is that this Council was his idea, and that the Emperor will judge him harshly if the Council’s advice turns out to be bad.

He coughs and begins to address the room.

“First of all, I know that the news coming from outside this installation has been mostly sour.”

“Your advice regarding the election was taken into consideration. We were not sure if the Emperor’s comments would have the intended effect.”

Indeed, in the time leading up to the election, you debated fiercely with your colleagues about whether these interventions would work. They had. The liberals had a great showing, and the socialists shocked the nation by capturing 15% of the Diet.

The gravity of your task here became apparent when the right reacted to the ill change of their fortunes. The death of Katayama Sen had caused syndicalists to become further radicalized. Rather than quieting the radicals by giving them some representation, they have been further inflamed by the violent reaction of the right.

“But indeed the absolute power of the conservatives was broken. However, with the situation in Niigata, it is not clear that the liberalization of our politics will lead to peace. So I am asking you to reconsider. I do not mean that you must reverse course, but I am merely informing you that His Majesty does not expect you to adhere to your first conclusion on this matter. If the new happenings convince you to change course, then we will respect that. If they do not, we will also respect that.”

“There is also a question on what we should do with regards to the left dissidents. They are disunited at the moment, but we do not know what may happen in the future with them.”

“If another incident like Niigata occurs, it may gain traction in ways we do not expect.”

“This time, it seems that we were able to cool off the situation there through building a majority out of moderate conservatives, liberals and social democrats. It remains to be seen how the reforms will play out, but it seems that we have stepped back from the brink of civil war.”

“Since the syndicalists in the Navy murdered the Prime Minister, Kisaburo has taken over power, and there is the potential for a new policy regarding the dissidents.”

“The nation is still fractious, friends, and so we ask you for advice. Should we stick to this path of liberalism or do we deviate from it?”

(Remember to vote for your first, second, etc. preferences!)

POLICY VOTE #1: Reconsidering the Liberalization Policy

PROBLEM: The liberalization of Japanese politics is taking hold, but the assassinations and uprisings of the last year have caused there to be concern about whether it has gone too far and if absolute conservative power or even military rule may be necessary to ward off the socialist threat.

Option A: Fully Reaffirm the Liberal Path

The policy will continue as is, repressive measures will be avoided and constitutional democracy will be preserved.

”We weep for the regrettable murder of our Prime Minister, but to exploit his death in order to pursue harsh measures against the Seiyukai’s political foes is wrongheaded. We will always pursue lawbreakers and traitors, but we must not abandon the principles of democracy.” - Morihiko Agano, Minseito member of the Diet

”We condemn the violence that the radicals utilize, but we refuse to stand by and allow the capitalists to use this murder as justification for suppressing our justified complaints about the mistreatment of the Japanese worker. If you attempt to silence the workingman, he will resort to the only language left to him, and more blood will flow. Do not be foolish.” – Shinsuke Miyake, Shakai Taishuto member of the Diet

Option B: Stick to the Constitutional Path, But Repress the Socialists

Anti-socialist measures will be taken, but constitutional government will be protected.

”The socialists are too dangerous to be allowed to operate unchecked. Their treasonous activities are behind the troubles in Niigata and the death of the Prime Minister, and all share the blame equally. If we are to preserve our constitutional system, we must keep a close eye on them at all times. They will tear its heart out if we let ideals override good sense.” – Kazuchika Naito, Seiyukai member of the Diet

Option C: Civilian Rule Must End

The military will take over as soon as possible and institute authoritarian measures to suppress syndicalism.

”The civilian government is ill equipped to handle this problem. Only we can do what is necessary to save Japan from the European disease of socialism.” – Tetsuya Shibata, IJA officer

Mr. Nakamura clears his throat to silence the chatter about what he has just said.

“There are other matters to discuss, namely the foreign policy of Japan.”

“We rely heavily on our foreign interests in China and Manchuria, of course.”

“Some of you may have heard that the Qing Emperor is seeking to restore the greatness of that nation. This is something that may be a threat to our interests.”

“In addition, the Mad Baron of Mongolia has seized control over Western China. He may threaten Manchuria next. Our responses to these potential threats will be shaped by how we handle a rising concern: that of Korean nationalism.”

POLICY VOTE 2: The Korea Question

PROBLEM: The jewel of the Empire, Korea, has been a part of the empire for 26 years. While Japanese settlement continues, there are rumblings of nationalism in the territory. The main conservative sentiment is that Korea is an integral part of the Japanese Empire and all nationalism should be stamped out. On the other hand, there are many liberals who believe that nationalist sentiment in Korea should be harnessed in a way to benefit Japan. Should Korea be a colony of Japan, or should Japan seek to nurture Korea as a partner state, under proper Japanese supervision of course?

Option A: Korea is Japanese

Korean independence will be resisted with all means available.

”We cannot allow the Korean nationalists to take root here. There is simply too much potential if we are able to make Korea a true province of Japan. The industry and resources here are crucial to the Empire.” – Kuniaki Koiso, Governor-General of Korea

”Japan is not first among equals, it is the rightful master of Asia. This talk of Korean independence is foolhardy. Japanese dominance is the only path that will deliver Asia into a new prosperous age.” – Katsuyori Makabe, IJA Officer

Option B: Korea Could Be Our Partner, Not Our Subject

If Korea seeks independence, Japan will seek to establish Korea as a puppet within a greater Asian alliance, similar to the status of Transamur and the Fengtien Republic.

”Our policies in Korea are making an enemy out of a people who should be our friends. By disrespecting their culture and attempting to impose ours, we are making a foolish mistake. The nation of Korea will resent us forever, but if we help them reach their potential then they will be a valuable ally in the coming years.” – Toru Taguchi, IJN Officer

“You will find in the reports today updates of the technological advances taking place throughout Japan. One area of concern however is in the advancement of our military doctrine. There are too many egos at play in the Army, and so we will have to use our resources to decide which of the many potential paths the Army will take as it prepares for future conflict.”

Mr. Nakamura straightens his glasses and organizes his papers.

“That will be all for now. You have three days.”

He walks off.

POLICY VOTE #3: Army Doctrines

PROBLEM: The experience of the Great War makes it clear that the Japanese Army needs to update its doctrines in order to have an edge against the many potential enemies it may clash with in coming years. There are five paths in total, supported by varying factions of the IJA, and ego and careerism means that there is not really a true debate about which would be the most effective for Japan. Rather it has become a contest for leadership and not a scientific debate where consensus would fall upon the best option. The Council needs to decide which path seems most promising for Japan.

Option A: Light Infantry Focus

The Light Infantry focus will open up for Japan. This tree benefits an army design of infantry and cavalry and gives them bonuses for fighting in rough terrain, of which there is a lot of in Asia. This is Japan’s typical tech tree in vanilla.

”We must be able to operate in any of the many climates in Asia. We do not need to be bogged down with great deals of heavy machinery like the French build. We are not likely to be having grand battles on the plains of Ukraine against the German Army after all.” – Tomoaki Takahashi, IJA Officer

Option B: Defensive Focus

The Defensive focus will open up for Japan. This makes for a more resilient army. This is the typical tech tree for France, UK and Italy in vanilla.

”We do not have the manpower that Russia or China has, therefore we must do our best to equip our troops so they can resist numerically larger forces.” – Tomohiro Tanahashi, IJA Officer

Option C: Firepower Focus

The Firepower Focus will open up for Japan. This benefits well equipped armies with lots of artillery and tactical bombers. This is the typical tech tree for the United States in vanilla and also what I have used for the CSA in the main game.

”We have industry in Japan, and so we should be leveraging this. More airplanes, more artillery! Bombard the enemies from range and we will reduce our enemy’s numerical advantage before they are even able to see our troops.” – Hiroshi Ishii, IJA Officer

Option D: Manpower Focus

The Manpower Focus will open for Japan. This benefits large armies of infantry. This is the typical tech tree for the USSR in vanilla.

”The only way we are going to match the Russians and the Chinese is to conscript as many people as we can equip and to throw them into battle. No amount of air power will help if we are outnumbered two to one on the ground. All these fancy new weapons are just tools, numbers and good tactics will still win the day.” – Minoru Goto, IJA Officer

Option E: Mobility Focus

The Mobility Focus will open up for Japan. This benefits armored spearhead tactics. This is the typical tech tree for Germany in vanilla.

”Major Goto is insane! We do not have the endless supplies of men that the Chinese have to! What the French are experimenting with in Europe will change the face of war forever and we would do well to get out ahead of it. One Japanese tank will be worth a hundred Chinese infantrymen.” – Hirooki Suzuki, IJA Officer

Chief Savage Man · May 17, 2017

Part Three (May-November 1936): Normalcy at All Costs

The Atlantic Monthly October 1936

A Rising Sun for Liberalism? Or a Last Gasp?

Lawrence Garrett

There has been a lot of press attention about a Japanese delegation of four that has travelled along the West Coast in recent months. They each represent a center of power in Japanese politics: the Imperial Japanese Army, the Imperial Japanese Navy, the conservative Rikken Seiyūkai, and the liberal Rikken Minseitō.

The army and navy are ostensibly in California as military attaches to the diplomatic mission of the civilian government, but the military’s role in Japanese politics is nothing new. Factions of the military regularly plot to influence Japanese politics in various ways. Radical officers in the Navy were behind the assassination of the Prime Minister last spring, and the current debate between the establishment-friendly Centralist faction and the radical Restorationist faction has turned into a power struggle that has made the already tense situation in Japan worse.

http://lpix.org/2797730/004.jpg[/IMG]

The daily news of Japanese politics causes fear and uncertainty, only broken up by diversions like the Helsinki Olympics, in which the Japanese swimming team did extremely well.

http://lpix.org/2797731/005.jpg[/IMG]

Those kinds of happy moments only provide the Seiyukai and Minseito brief respite from the unresolved tensions in Japanese politics. Thus the liberal-democratic establishment in Japan makes deal after deal with forces that seek to displace it. At first, the Minseito sought and received a settlement with the Shakai Taishuto to bring an end to civil disturbances in Niigata. Now the Seiyukai has thrown its support behind Restorationism, despite the public views of Restorationist officers that the parliamentary system ought to be eliminated.

http://lpix.org/2797732/006.jpg[/IMG]

The troubles of Japan are not confined to the Home Islands. Korea, the most important part of Japan’s empire, has seen a marked increase in nationalist activity.

http://lpix.org/2797733/007.jpg[/IMG]

An initial rumor that Germany would back the Korean cause turned out to be false.

http://lpix.org/2797734/008.jpg[/IMG]

However, there is strong evidence that Russia has been aiding Korean nationalist militias.

These kinds of crises have caused many a government to adopt authoritarian policies, but Japan somehow resists this temptation. For this reason, liberals and democrats in the United States have looked to Japan since MacArthur’s seizure of power for an example of how democracy can survive.

http://lpix.org/2797737/011.jpg[/IMG]

However, the Japanese democrats are far from out of the woods. The ambitious military programs of the Restorationists have caused concern in the Diet, mainly about their cost but also about some of the cultural ramifications of the Army’s militarist propaganda.

http://lpix.org/2797738/012.jpg[/IMG]

Many of Obata’s doctrines are untested, and there is also concern amongst the Navy elite that his belief in tanks will cause Japan’s scarce resources to be diverted away from the Navy, something the island nation is obviously reliant upon.

http://lpix.org/2797739/013.jpg[/IMG]

The conservative Prime Minister has been haunted by his failure to pass a “national security” bill, not dissimilar from the Emergency Security Act passed in the United States, that was backed by many in the military, elite and bureaucracy. The threat of his government collapsing is very real.

http://lpix.org/2797740/014.jpg[/IMG]

More real and perhaps more frightening is the threat of a military coup. If the population at large loses faith in the parliament, there will be very little chance that the government could stand up to an Army or Navy coup.

http://lpix.org/2797742/016.jpg[/IMG]

This is why Americans should be wary when liberals in the United States point to Japan as an example. Even as our country seems to be on the brink of disaster, Japan may not be far behind us on the road to ruin. We do have MacArthur, but Japan may have Obata soon enough.

http://lpix.org/2797743/017.jpg[/IMG]

The syndicalists may run the industrial cities, but the Shakai Taishuto has nearly as much influence in some Japanese industrial centers.

http://lpix.org/2797744/018.jpg[/IMG]

The authoritarian and racist tendencies of the America First movement are mirrored in similarly jingoistic groups that preach Japanese supremacy. Japan, much like the United States, faces a very uncertain road ahead.

POLICY VOTE #1: A General Policy On Foreign Nations

PROBLEM: Japan already has colonies, and there is already a policy in place to give Korea its partial independence if it desires. However, what about Formosa and territories that may come under Japanese dominion in the future? Should Japan seek direct control over these territories or set up puppet states underneath the auspices of a pan-Asian organization with Japan at its head?

(Note: if Option B succeeds, there may be future votes about specific territories that have unique considerations and may be good to release as a puppet, China and its enormous territory for instance.)

Option A: Puppet States

Formosa will be given puppet status if the event to do so fires. Conquered nations will be released as puppets under military control.

”What use is it to evict the Europeans from Asian lands only to replace their inefficient and brutal empire with a copy? We will only become powerful enough to truly defeat the Germans if we have allies that add to the total capability of the Empire, not subtract from it by requiring constant attention. Japan will be first among equals.” – Akifumi Hoshino, IJN Officer

Option B: Direct Control

Territory will remain Japanese.

”Land that absorbs Japanese blood becomes Japanese land!” – Guy on the street in Tokyo

POLICY VOTE #2: Expansionism

PROBLEM: Asia is still mostly dominated by European and American influences. Bringing Asia out of the darkness will be a tough task, but if we are to do it, we must decide where to start.

(Note: These event trees work in such a way that when one is completed, it is possible to start another one. Therefore if we choose A, then B and C will not become impossible and if and when A is resolved, there would be another vote to choose another path. Also, there will be a further vote about which subpath to go down in each tree.)

Option A: The Pacific (Phillippines/Indonesia/Australasia)

(Note: Guam will be seized no matter which path is chosen because it’s a free province.)

”The troubles in America present an opportunity for us. We will have the opportunity to expand our reach, in the Phillippines or perhaps the Dutch East Indies. Australasia itself even?” - Ikuei Andou, IJN Officer

Option B: Germany (German colonies/Qing)

”A fine suggestion but Germany would never allow us to go through with it. We must go straight for the throat of Germany! With them in the way, we will never be able to achieve our goals.” – Shousei Motsuzuki, IJA Officer

Option C: The North (Russia/Mongolia)

”It is far too soon to dream of a confrontation with Germany. The troubles of the last year have made it difficult to grow our military. We must become more powerful before we attempt something like that. We need resources, resources that they have in the north. Russia? Mongolia? That is a more prudent path in my opinion.” - Fumitake Irie, IJA Officer

Deus · May 18, 2017

Option B and Option A

Chief Savage Man · May 25, 2017

Part Four: The Difficult Path (November 1936 – March 1937)

The problems of the Japanese government continued when a coalition of liberals and socialists rammed through a proposal to negotiate autonomy for the restive Korean colony.

The concessions were received around the world as a sign of Japanese weakness in the face of sedition from its colonies.

Conservative warnings about the Korean concession leading to a domino effect that would topple the entire empire seemed to be correct, as a coalition of Formosan nationalists ramped up their agitation for a similar autonomous status in the wake of Korean independence.

The concessions came off to the public in both Japan and the world like the leadership in Japan was losing control of the situation, but in fact they were a part of the Shadow Council’s design.

A situation across the Pacific gave the government an opportunity to attempt to regain its prestige in the eyes of the world.

With the United States completing its gradual decline from economic depression into factionalism to all out civil war, the Imperial Japanese Navy immediately moved, with civilian approval, to seize the island of Guam for the use of Japan.

The seizure gave Japan an important base further south than Iwo Jima, a base that would allow Japanese forces to project power throughout the German colonies of Micronesia.

The Imperial Japanese Army, never wanting to be shown by the Navy, presented a plan to invade the now ex-American protectorate of the Philippines, but the plan had absolutely no shot of being approved in the Diet.

The seizure of Guam was a bright spot, but Japan was still very troubled. The political turmoil and the loss of prestige angered the population, and Japan’s liberal experiment was on the precipice.

Japan’s ability to expand its military was hampered by the political chaos at home, but efforts to increase Japan’s soft power through espionage and diplomacy went ahead.

If the Japanese could not exert military might amidst the chaos, they proved to be deft in the application of soft power. When the liberal breakaway states of the American West Coast elected to invade their former motherland in order to liberate more states from the MacArthur military government, Japan was presented with an opportunity.

A new Japanese prime minister gave the government respite as the angry population waited to see what Mizuno Rentaro could accomplish.

Prime Minister Rentaro immediately sought to get Japan a victory. Since military victory was expensive, diplomatic victory would do. He offered to negotiate a truce between the Americans and the Pacific rebels. MacArthur accepted the offer but was then immediately offended by Rentaro’s blatant bias in favor of the rebels. MacArthur’s delegation stormed out of the negotiations and the San Francisco government responded by seizing United States assets, setting the Pacific and United States on an irreversible course towards war.

This was Japan’s aim all along, and the breakdown was followed by an offer of Japanese support for the Pacific rebels. Volunteers were plentiful, as IJA personnel sought opportunities to distinguish themselves. The support had broad partisan support. The conservatives wished to see another Pacific naval power smashed, the liberals saw the Pacific States as the inheritor of the American liberal legacy, and the socialists believed a strong Pacific States in opposition to the United States would give the Combined Syndicates a chance to take root.

Combined with the opportunistic attack on America by Mexico, a potential rival to Japan was in very deep trouble.

These deft moves did not fix all of Japan’s problems, however. The threat of military coup hung over Rentaro’s head just like it did his predecessors.

The fate of Kolchak in Vladivostok was far from implausible for Rentaro in Japan, perhaps even probable given the general discontent.

The day of reckoning came after the New Year when coup plotters sprung their plan into action. On the advice of the Shadow Council, the Emperor denounced and resisted the coup, and the plotters were rounded up without much disturbance. The survival of democracy in Japan sent a message to the world that Japan, despite its difficulties, was going to be a light for the world.

The failed coup and the attendant arrests caused even greater disruption to Japan’s military ambitions, as one of the plotters was Koji Sakai, mastermind of Japan’s new mobility focused doctrines. Other less capable but more loyal generals would take on his work.

With a coup defeated, the government continued with its programs to bring Japan out of economic despair and political turmoil. Outside Japan, the Pacific Rim continued to bustle with activity. Mexico’s victory over the United States brought that socialist nation to its greatest power since before the first Mexican-American War. Yes, Mexico controls San Francisco and Sacramento, no, I do not know how.

A France-backed coup in the Netherlands sent the Dutch Royal Family in exile to Indonesia.

The Dutch government-in-exile establishing itself in Batavia turned Indonesia from a distant Dutch concern to an active participant in Asian politics.

Any hopes that Japan could sweep in and seize the archipelago for itself easily were dashed when Indonesia aligned itself with the world’s premier collection of exiles: the Entente Cordiale.

As 1937 came into full swing and Japan’s power play in the United States paid enormous dividends, the question of what would come next for Japan came up.

The Shadow Council, thankful that Japan had survived a tumultuous winter and pleasantly surprised at the demise of one potential foe, began to set their sights on another: the German Empire.

POLICY VOTE #1: German Colonies or Qing China?

PROBLEM: Germany’s influence in Asia is both direct and indirect. They have extensive colonial holdings which include: their concessions in China proper, Indochina, North Borneo, the southern tip of Malaya, northeastern New Guinea and many Micronesian islands. They also have an ally in the Qing Empire which is attempting to grow out of underneath their shadow. Japan ought to supplant Germany as the preeminent power in Asia, but there is a question on how to accomplish this. Japan can either seek to invade Qing China to remove Germany’s ally there, or Japan can plan to seize German colonies to isolate Qing China for a later assault.

Option A: The German Colonies

An assault on German colonies will be planned for when Germany gets into a war with France.

”Germany’s many colonies are arrayed in such a manner to control China. If we were to seize these colonies, we would then be in the same position to control China. Attempting to exert control from our limited holdings would be difficult and allow for Germany to support China from their holdings. We must first eliminate Germany from the equation, and then assault China.” - Yasushi Hayagawa, IJN Officer

Option B: China

Japan will adopt an aggressive posture towards the Qing Empire that would be sure to lead to war.

”We cannot be sure that we will have an opportunity to attack the Germans before Qing China becomes too powerful for us to defeat in battle. We must try to handle the Qing sooner rather than later.” - Junpei Kajihara, IJA Officer

POLICY VOTE #1: The 1937 Election

PROBLEM: The political chaos means that a new election is about to be called by the Seiyukai government. The Shadow Council can choose to support either the conservative Seiyukai party for another stint in charge or support the liberal Minseito party for a change.

Neither option will particularly affect the foreign policy of Japan.

A: Seiyukai (Conservatives)

B: Minseito (Liberals)

Deus · May 25, 2017

B and B

Germany is too dangerous a foe to take on without a strong platform to stand on.

Liberals.

Chief Savage Man · Jun 3, 2017

Part Five: The Bear and the Dragon (March 1937-January 1938)

The army’s China policy winning out over the Navy’s Singapore policy had immediate consequences for production. After years of limited military spending due to the economic crisis, the government made orders for new cavalry units to be trained. Armored units were preferred in accordance with the mobility doctrines adopted the previous year, but there were not enough resources and the Army was not confident in their existing armor designs. Cavalry were quicker than infantry and were only somewhat more expensive to produce than infantry.

The military spending and conscriptions upset the tenuous peace and quiet of the few months since the failed coup, but Japanese society was still on an arc towards becoming more stable, as opposed to being more chaotic.

With the domestic situation in hand and military spending on the rise, foreign affairs became more of interest to the Japanese public again. Russia, which had become more authoritarian since the assassination of Kerensky, had designs on the Caucasus, which were countered by Germany’s admission of the Don-Kuban Union and Azerbaijan into the Mitteleuropa alliance.

The back and forth between Russia and Germany over the Caucasus encouraged them to pursue their plans of supplanting Germany in Asia. The China policy was approved by the government and preparations, secret of course, were made for an eventual confrontation with the Qing.

As the spring rolled around, a minor benefit of the Korea policy became apparent, as Japanese troops were redeployed from Korea to defend the new possession of Guam, along with other important Japanese outposts like Okinawa and Iwo Jima. The liberals trumpeted this as proof that trusting the Koreans with partial independence was a wise move.

Even though the “allies” (as the government referred to Japan’s puppet states) enjoyed this more liberal approach to their own sovereignty, the Japanese military command made it clear that their armed forces would be under a unified command in the event of a conflict.

The coordination of the Co-Prosperity Sphere was tested when Russian troop movements towards the east triggered alarm. Fortunately, the Russians were moving towards attacking Mongolia and not the Japanese sphere.

The liberals’ successes and the subtle endorsements of the Emperor carried them to victory in the April election. Rather than rushing towards left and right wing extremes, the Japanese public began to take pride in the fact that they were holding in the democratic center.

The new government was more liberal and democratic than the departed Seiyukai cabinet, but they maintained the hawkishness and interventionism of the previous government. This was practically a precondition of the military not instigating further coup attempts.

The new government was tested by the announcement of a reinsurance treaty between Russia and Germany. Germany proposed the treaty as a response to the militant tone of the Internationale. Germany’s message in signing the reinsurance treaty was to say that Russia was no concern of theirs compared to France. This was quite explicit. The implicit message from the Russians was what was concerning. Russia was willing to give up their European ambitions, but they had done nothing to signal that Mongolia was the extent of their Asian ambitions.

With the reinsurance treaty signed, Japan elected to respond in the best way it could. Organizing a high profile summit between the Emperor and the King of Siam gave the Japanese press a great deal of material and signaled to the Germans that they were making moves of their own.

Unfortunately, no alliance came from the summit, but the many friendly words and speeches gave the public no indication that the summit had been a failure. It was spun in the media as an initiative to encourage pan-Asian friendship, rather than a diplomatic maneuver against Germany.

The blessings for the government followed as the Army finally began to operate at its former capacity after the mass arrests following the failed coup.

This was fortuitous as the Russians seemed to be as impressed with the ideas of the French armor reformers as the Japanese command was. However, Russia had more industry, resources and political will to actually produce quantities of armor.

The Japanese High Command began to prepare to field its own armored units in case Russian armor appeared on the Manchurian frontier.

While the liberals settled into government, the Seiyukai imploded. However, the liberals were still caught up in the conservatives’ woes as the Kokumin Domei was formed from elements of both the Seiyukai and Minseito.

Other foreign developments came across the news wires of Japan. Burma fell victim to syndicalist revolution.

The socialists gained an upper hand in the American Civil War, as the Mexicans invaded the Union State due to border clashes along the Red River.

The Mexican involvement would be short-lived but crucial. Mexico gained control of Oklahoma and distracted the Union State long enough for the Combined Syndicates to penetrate deep into Alabama.

However, the two major stories in the Japanese media concerned two regional wars and two rival powers. The first was the Russian invasion of Mongolia. A Japanese operation against the vile Baron von Sternberg had been mooted earlier in the year, but preparations for a clash with Germany were considered more important.

Russia’s military was hardly as numerically massive as it had been during the Great War, but it was nevertheless sizable, certainly larger than the combined forces of the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Hopes that Russia would stop its attack once it secured the regions containing the Trans-Siberian Railroad were dashed when a new national populist government seized power and recast the war as more than an operation to secure the Railroad. Instead, the far-right regime portrayed the war as the beginning of Russia’s resurgence to its rightful place as a Great Power. Russian control of both Mongolia and Sinkiang was certainly signs of their trajectory towards greater prominence, and something that concerned the IJA greatly.

The second war was between the Qing Empire and the Shangqing rebellion that had endured in the Shaanxi province.

A significant portion of the Army proposed that Japan should attack the Qing immediately, but the idea was shot down immediately by the civilian government.

The Qing were by no means a Great Power, not even a faded one like the Russians. They had a smaller army than the IJA, and one that was technologically inferior to boot.

However, as Qing quickly defeated the Shangqing rebels, their industrial and manpower base was expanding. In time, the Qing could easily become a power to rival Japan.

It was unlikely that the Qing would ever be navally strong enough to threaten Japan directly, but they could certainly become strong enough to attempt to evict Japan from the mainland, something that would be devastating for the resource situation.

The new cavalry divisions would be a welcome addition to the Co-Prosperity Sphere’s strength, but as it stood, Japan’s ability to stand alone against an undistracted Russia was suspect. Her ability to stand against both the Qing Empire and Russia was likely non-existent. Her ability to stand both of those nations with Germany behind the Qing was certainly non-existent.

The liberal government was aware of the great need for more military hardware given all of the potential threats and so it convened an economic planning board in order to find ways to make the economy more efficient.

Liberalizing the economy was part of this initiative. By breaking the relationships between the Zaibatsu and the military, the liberal government hoped that a more competitive landscape would result in more efficient use of industrial resources as multiple companies attempted to produce hardware quicker than their rivals.

These initial reforms were only the beginning, as the planning board prepared to release a more extensive reform package.

The last major initiative of the government in this period was to appease the Navy who had been asked to take a backseat in favor of the Army’s China policy.

Six modern aircraft carriers were ordered and they would take years to finish. If construction began now, then they would become a factor in time for a potential war with Germany.

POLICY VOTE: The Russian Question

PROBLEM: The far-right regime in Russia is intent on uniting their fractured empire, and frankly they are more powerful as a land power than we are. They are beginning to agitate for a plebiscite in Transamur about a reunification with Russia. Should Japan be willing to risk conflict with Russia over Transamur, abandon Transamur and hope this is the end of their ambitions, or perhaps even seek a more comprehensive settlement with the Russians?

Option A: Stand Behind Transamur

Japan will refuse any Russian demands upon Transamur.

”It is absolutely disgraceful to suggest abandoning Transamur. The liberals were so insistent that their league of Asian nations idea would be a success, how would this undermine that idea? If we are willing to allow Russia to have their way with Transamur, then how do we convince Manchuria that we will not hand them over to the Qing when it’s convenient for us?” - Mototsugu Yoshikawa, Kokumin Domei member of the Diet

”We cannot allow this evil regime to expand any further! It is already a disgrace that we did not keep them out of Mongolia, but now they want to expand into our Co-Prosperity Sphere?! It’s preposterous! I have never been an advocate of the arrangement in Transamur, but to abandon them to the reactionaries not only shames socialists like me, but it shames all of you who call yourselves democrats.” - Arika Tsuchida, Shakai Taishuto member of the Diet

Option B: Appease the Russians

Japan will accede to any Russian demands upon Transamur.

”We simply are not ready for war with the Russians, even if we are not involved in a conflict with the Qing. We have to buy ourselves time. It is regrettable but Transamur must be sacrificed to protect the rest of the Sphere.” - Akitaka Baba, IJA Officer

Option C: The Unholy Alliance

Japan will offer up Transamur as a bargaining chip to the Russians in exchange for an alliance.

”If I may, I would like to offer an alternative solution to this Russia problem. Russia would like to climb to greatness over top of somebody’s corpse, but I do not see necessarily why it must be ours. Is the Russian government disgusting and racist and vile? Yes. Can we do anything about it right now? No. I agree with the appeasers that we should give up Transamur, but it should be as part of an overall settlement with the Russians. Russia has far more to reclaim from German hands than from ours, and I think they will see reason if we point out that a war with us would only distract us both from a greater foe. Until we are such a point that we can effectively oppose Russia, we should be directing their strength in a direction that behooves us.” – Isoroku Yamamoto, IJN Officer

Deus · Jun 4, 2017

Option A. No appeasement, no trying to control the elephant.

Chief Savage Man · Jun 9, 2017

Part Six: I Hope You’re All Pleased With Yourselves (January-April 1938)

When rumors of a Russo-Japanese alliance spread following the Russian conquest of Mongolia, the Minseito government proclaimed publicly that an alliance targeted against Germany with the far right Vozhd regime was out of the question.

The lack of Russia as a partner in a confrontation with Germany and China complicated matters for Army planners, and the failure of the AOG-Qing standoff to break out into armed conflict also disappointed the planners.

The Qing Empire doubling in size overnight was an unwelcome development, as was their acquisition of the Portuguese port of Macao.

The Qing’s largest remaining contender for control of China, the National Protection Alliance centered around the Yunnan Clique, responded by seeking to seize Tibet. The previously fractious situation had China had quickly coalesced into four distinct units: the Japanese sphere, the National Protection Alliance, the Russian sphere, and the Qing Empire.

Japan was now contending with a much larger foe than it had anticipated.

The foreign developments did not change the Minseito’s plans to liberalize the economy, and the more competitive environment was already resulting in faster production of munitions.

Fortunately for the Japanese, the Russians did not take their claims on Transamur to war, at least not yet.

This strengthened the Japanese position when the Army instigated its plan to trigger a war with Qing.

Germany, despite losing the AOG to Qing, agreed to back China against Japan. The government refused to back down. Japan had taken on an incredible challenge on both land and sea. If they were successful, it would shift the balance of power in Asia forever. If they were unsuccessful, then Qing China would rise to power over the corpse of Japan’s empire.

STRATEGY SESSION

The Sphere is currently at war with the Mitteleuropa alliance, which includes all the above.

There are two theaters to consider here. The general mainland theater stretches from the frontier with the Qing Empire to Saigon. The Pacific theater consists of Germany’s mainly possessions, including Singapore, North Borneo, Northwest New Guinea and the various islands of Melanesia and Polynesia.

Germany’s Navy is large but many of the ships are old. However, Japan’s domestic difficulties have prevented us from building many ships of our own. Our carriers under production will not be ready until 1940.

On the outbreak of war, the Sphere’s military was mobilizing towards the border with Qing China. There was a clear advantage in terms of forces present on the frontier, but the total size of the Qing forces was larger.

On the Home Islands were four marine divisions, who were being held in reserve, possibly to open up a second front in China or to seize German colonial possessions.

To put it frankly, Japan had taken a hard path and seemed ready to pay for it. By committing to a liberal ideal and choosing confrontation with the greatest power of its day, Japan had not been able to expand its military like authoritarian and syndicalist states had been able to. 1936 was a year of chaos, not preparation, and the confrontation with Qing China and Imperial Germany came about sooner than anybody would have liked. However, Japan was not alone in believing that the age of the liberal democratic empires had not passed. There was an alliance that could help them.

POLICY VOTE: Join the Entente?

Yes or No.

Deus · Jun 9, 2017

Yes.

Chief Savage Man · Jun 10, 2017

Part Seven: The Entente Goes to War (April-July 1938)

With the surprise ascension of Japan to the Entente, the German Empire suddenly found its shipping lanes to the Asian colonies threatened by nations it never dreamed would challenge its dominance. The Dutch government-in-exile resented Germany for not intervening when a France-backed coup toppled the government. Now the Entente had designs on Germany’s colonies and they were looking to execute them.

While the war in the colonies captured Europe’s attention, the true battle was for China. The Qing military had been lulled into a false sense of security by the tensions between Russia and Japan, not believing that Japan would strike them with such an ominous foe up north.

Thus, the numerically superior but technologically inferior Qing military found itself stripped of its only hope: sheer numbers.

The Japanese military did not have the tank divisions that Koji Sakai dreamed of before his arrest, but they did have cavalry and initiative. The Sphere forces struck quickly and effectively, and before long, Beijing was enveloped on three sides.

The capture of Beijing was not unexpected, but nonetheless it was a blow to the morale of the Qing, who moved their capital south to the plains. It was also an opportunity for the Japanese press to trumpet about the glories of the IJA. Particularly common were photos of the German pilots captured in Beijing. The Japanese had defeated the Chinese before, but the Germans had ended up on top during the Weltkrieg, and any opportunity to show Japanese victories over the greatest empire of the day was well appreciated.

Thankfully, the Russians continued to keep their distance, apparently distracted by the growing threat of Turkestan in Central Asia. They used the Qing’s troubles as an opportunity to cement the independence of their puppet states in nominally Qing territory, but nothing more.

A surprising development was the skill of the lesser Sphere armies. The Korean army, only a year and a few months old, had managed to equip itself with more modern equipment than most Japanese units had. While Japan’s military procurement had been disrupted by the troubles of 1936 and 1937, Korea had quietly purchasing a significant amount of arms from Japanese manufacturers, helping to keep those businesses strong. Together with the armies of Manchuria and Transamur, the non-Japanese contingent of the Sphere forces was justifying the faith of the liberals who had activated for the internationalist approach to the Empire and Sphere.

The opening weeks of the conflict brought success for the Sphere, as the Qing military had been mostly deployed against the National Protection Alliance and was still integrating with the AOG military it had just absorbed. The initial successes against smaller forces made it difficult for redeploying Qing forces to establish a firm line of defense.

The Sphere, having captured Beijing and environs, began to enter the next stage of the operation. It was at this point that the front began to split into two distinct fronts. The coastal plains were ideal for cavalry maneuvers, but the mountains to the west were equally important, as if the Qing were to become entrenched there, they would be difficult to dislodge.

Sphere forces followed Sakai’s doctrines as best they could. They strove to encircle the enemy, to keep up the momentum and to leverage their superior equipment and training. Their officers took the initiative and oftentimes captured or killed ten times as many enemies as the enemy captured or killed friendly troops. It was not unheard of that a dozen Sphere troops would catch a hundred Qing troops unawares, and force their surrender as the enemy did not have ammunition delivered on time or had no orders. The Qing command hierarchy was in chaos.

Of particular interest to Japan was Tsingtau. This was an important city, not only because it was a major base for the Germans in Asia, but for reasons of national pride. The Japanese had successfully sieged and captured Tsingtau in the first Great War, but were compelled to give it up following the defeat of the Allies in Europe. Recapturing it would be a cause for celebration in Japan.

After a few months, the Sphere found itself making slow but steady progress through the mountains.

Unfortunately, the advance through the Gobi Desert was called off, as the Korean Army was outnumbered. It was possible that the Koreans could have forced their way through, but the amount of casualties would have been high, and the Japanese government had a distinct interest in making sure no Sphere member felt as though their troops were less valuable than any other. The placid post-independence situation in Korea had allowed that nation to equip a modern army, and it was in Japan’s interest to keep it that way.

After two and a half months, the Sphere had captured one Qing capital and was on its way to capturing another. It was as good a start as anybody could have hoped for.

Prime Minister King Explains Gamble on Japan

Boston Globe, April 9, 1938

Mere hours after Prime Minister King’s offer to mediate the dispute between Japan and Germany was ignored by the Kaiser, Prime Minister King announced a renewal of the Anglo-Japanese alliance effective immediately. The events that followed the announcement represented the Entente and Mitteleuropa alliances ending up in full conflict by the end of the week, though no formal state of war has been announced between Canada and Germany, merely a vague policy that the Entente would “assist” Japan, which has declared war on the Qing Empire and has had war declared upon her by the German Empire.

The alliance and war with Germany represents the final victory for the Prime Minister over the exile faction that has agitated for war with the Internationale above all else. Prime Minister King has argued throughout his tenure that the Entente is not strong enough to confront the Internationale, and would only manage to irritate the Internationale while Mitteleuropa claims the homelands for themselves. The alliance with Japan is intended to build a power base for the Entente in Asia. In short, Prime Minister King is adhering to the slogan he spoke a few months past: Democracy over revenge. In other words, allying with the democrats in Japan is more important than schemes to reclaim the mother countries.

First impressions about the renewed alliance were that it was actually some kind of non-military mutual assistance policy, where the Entente and Japan would share technology and cooperate on trade matters.

Then began the firestorm when it was revealed that the Royal Navy was sailing to Europe in order to raid Mitteleuropa bases in Ireland. The exile faction grew furious that the Entente would be going to war with Germany rather than the Internationale, but the move was met with approval by the Canada’s allies. Indonesia and Australasia were glad to be assured that Japan was an ally and not a threat. Delhi similarly expressed appreciation that a major Asian power was on their side and National France, target of Mittelafrikan ambitions, has reportedly been planning for a clash with the German Empire for months.

Prime Minister King’s Japan gamble is a clear sign that the Entente has, at least for now, decided to forgo European ambitions in favor of expanding its power base in Asia. In his radio address, he noted that Japan’s Co-Prosperity Sphere mirrors the style of democratic confederalism and cooperation that the British Empire has operated under since the Revolution. He cast this alliance of Asian democrats against a selfish German Empire, who has backed the Qing. By casting in Canada’s lot with Japan in the midst of their play for Asian dominance, Prime Minister King has brought the Entente from a band of exiles into a true contender.

Headlines from The Globe and Mail

Chinese Liberals Flock to Volunteer Battalions to Battle Qing

Princely States Revolt Against Nizam’s Rule

Delhi and Calcutta Regimes in Race to Claim South of India

New Puppet Governments in Western China, Germany, Qing, Japan All Refuse Recognition

German Authorities Issue Travel Alert For Citizens Sailing Through South China Sea

Turkestan Declares Jihad Against Mitteleuropa After Border Clashes Along Volga

Yunnan Clique Annexes Tibet

Canadian Feminists Point to Japan as Model for Working Women

No policy votes this update.

Deus · Jun 11, 2017

Hit the soft underbelly of China.

Chief Savage Man · Jun 15, 2017

Part Eight: Cha-Qing! (July-October 1938)

While the Japanese celebrated their capture of Qingdao, the Manchurian Army pursued the fleeing Germans to the city of Yantai. This was the most publicized episode the early stages of the war other than the capture of Beijing because it involved German troops and the loss of a major center of German operations in China.

What gained less coverage was the clash between the Qing and the Sphere further inland even though it was much more significant. The major component of Qing forces were present in the west, and the terrain made it more difficult for the Sphere to assault. Nevertheless, the Sphere continued to press its advantage as it attempted to control the Yellow River.

Qing counterattacks were far and few between, and quickly rebuffed by the more mobile Sphere forces. As tactical options to stem the Sphere advance seemed to run out and the prospect of a major German relief force arriving dimmed, the Qing sought ways to change the equation in favor. They approached the National Protection Alliance.

They made a mistake in doing so aggressively however. The Emperor, believing the Alliance to be warlords who would only respect strength, threatened them with war if they did not join the Empire. The Alliance, seeing the advances of the Sphere, decided to strike first.

The attack on Qing’s southwestern frontier was a blessing for the Sphere. It would draw forces away and spread further chaos throughout the Qing bureaucracy. Army planners called for a grand and sweeping amphibious invasion at some point of the Chinese coast to bring the war to a rapid end.

Minseito politicians scaled the plans back significantly. The casualties had not been as high as expected thus far and the government was loathe to send untrained troops on an amphibious invasion. With only six battle-ready cavalry divisions available to back up the marines, the decision was made to invade Nantong in order to more directly attack Nanjing without being too far from the main front in case things went wrong. The successes so far had been a political boon for the Minseito and a major disaster that embarrassed Japan just as it was impressing the world would undo all of that and more.

While the invasion force established itself on the coast, the Sphere salient extended southwest to Linfen. Linfen was defensible, with rivers to the west and south, and so it was a good position of strength from which to operate against the Qing forces being caught between the Sphere salient and the Russian client states to the west.

The theater would also serve as a kind of touchstone moment for the newly reestablished Korean state. The Korean military was the most effective fighting unit in the Sphere except for the Japanese cavalry and marine units, and thus they were trusted with the task of pushing back a Qing size of equal size but inferior quality and training. This was a suboptimal situation for Japanese planners who liked to overwhelm the enemy when possible in order to force quick retreats and keep momentum. With their Manchurian allies in Datong unable to assist due to impassable terrain, the Koreans engaged the enemy head on all by their lonesome, without even Japanese air support, and pushed them back. It was hardly an upset that ten organized modern divisions would defeat ten unorganized and poorly equipped divisions, but nevertheless it was a victory that Korea could own all for themselves.

Koji Sakai’s visions of mass encirclements with rapid forces were not realized during the Qing War, mostly due to a lack of armored divisions, but the Japanese did successfully encircle a Qing Army on the coast after the Japanese cavalry raced north to cut off the routes of retreat. It wasn’t a grand victory that would change the course of the war, but it was a significant victory.

The operation did succeed in flanking the Qing forces in the Xuzhou area, which helped to make the job of the forces driving south from the capture of Qingdao much easier.

However, the Japanese would learn the perils of this kind of maneuver warfare. By leaving the marines, already exhausted by the opposed landing, to defend Nantong while their reinforcements raced off to the north, the Japanese were unable to hold Nantong for long. The caution of the Minseito proved wise here, as the marines were able to retreat to the safety of the main front.

The Linfen salient had come within a few hundred miles of NPA territory, which opened up the possibility that the Sphere and NPA lines could meet and cut off the Qing forces in the west.

Leaving the Transamur army to defend Linfen, the rest of the Sphere forces in the west began a general assault along the western front.

As a large number of Qing divisions were beginning to become trapped in the west, the Sphere found itself with a decided advantage in numbers along the coast.

It was at this point that Japanese intelligence gained a fuller picture of the true level of disorganization, poor supply and horrible morale in the Qing military. Sphere commanders were encouraged to take the initiative and advance more aggressively.

Unfortunately, the NPA advance had stalled and the Qing were beginning to push back in the southwest, so the likelihood of a large encirclement in Shanxi province became less.

However, that possible major victory was replaced by another: the capture of a third Qing capital in Nanjing.

As summer began to roll into autumn, the Japanese had secured a wide swath of China, the Alliance had thrown the Qing from partial into total chaos, and the Germans more and more regarded their Chinese ally as a lost cause. The war had been a gamble, but it seemed to be paying off.

Outside of China

The Japanese public, except for committed pacifists and some leftist factions opposed to the Entente alliance, were enthusiastically supportive of the war. The government did not even need to encourage the population to find ways to support the troops, and popular artists recorded patriotic songs without being requested to by the government, though the government did certainly assist in making sure the songs were heard through the military.

The central theater of the war was a success thus far but the performance of the Entente outside of China was a mixed bag. The Germans were slowly seizing the Dutch portion of Borneo.

Similarly, Australasia was slow in moving to support Indonesia in New Guinea.

Japan was not immune from taking losses, as the Minami Torishima atoll east of Iwo Jima was seized without a fight by the Germans.

However, Delhi had announced that Germany had no right to Ceylon and that they were annexing the territory immediately. And they were making good on the promise.

The situation in North America was of great interest to Japan, especially as the Combined Syndicates defeated both of their rivals and became the authority over the lion’s share of American industry and population.

This development drove Cuba and the Pacific States, a nation the Japanese were very friendly towards, into the Entente, expanding the alliance and forming a cordon around the socialist power based in Chicago.

While Canada was driving the expansion of the Entente in North America, Japan was making its own efforts to make new friends. One particular effort centered around Ethiopia, as a prince of that nation toured Japan and then expressed a desire to take a Japanese bride, something that provided a great deal of fodder for gossip columns and chatter in Japanese society.

The most important development for the Entente in this time period was the progression of the Indian conflicts. Delhi and the Bhartiya Commune had divided the Indian Empire amongst themselves.

Their competition over the independent states of the south would inevitably lead to conflict.

The Commune would launch a surprise attack against Delhi, after which all of the other Entente members including Japan declared war upon the Commune.

Not long into the war, the socialists forced the monarchy out of Nepal and announced they had annexed Nepal, meaning the Entente had lost a member. A relatively unimportant member but a member nonetheless. While it seemed likely the Japanese were going to add China to the Entente in due time, it seemed the Entente could very well lose India at the same time.

No votes (there will be votes next update)

Chief Savage Man · Jun 17, 2017

Part Nine: Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil, Sino Evil (November 1938 – March 1939)

As autumn rolled into winter, the campaign accelerated in pace, as Japanese commanders sought to perpetuate the state of chaos in which the enemy was trapped. Typical concerns about campaigning in winter were set aside in favor of a rapid conclusion.

Capturing the entirety of China by the onset of winter had always been too ambitious to even consider, but the idea that the Japanese could force the Qing to come to the table by that point was not. However, the Qing were hardened in their resolve and rejected all offers of negotiation, even as the National Protection Alliance penetrated deep into the Pearl River Delta, cutting off the southern coast of China from the main body of Qing forces.

The enemy in that area was still supplied out of German Indochina, and that colony’s supply lines were dependent upon shipping that travelled through the Strait of Malacca, defended by the fortress of Singapore. The other side of the Strait was controlled by the Indonesians, but the Dutch colonial government had never anticipated that they would be at war with their German neighbors, and so there were not many large guns trained on the narrow Strait from that end.

Japanese intelligence discovered, to their astonishment, that the city was largely undefended and an operation to seize the city was launched immediately with any available troops.

Japanese intelligence would later discover that the Germans had hoped that airpower in Singapore and in Sarawak would be able to stop any invasion attempt. The Japanese did lose the Hyūga, an updated Weltkrieg-era battleship, to German dive bombers, but the Japanese battleship fleet sent to escort the landing was simply too large for the bombers to be able to truly turn around.

Formosa, the only Sphere member that had yet to take part in the fighting, landed two divisions in Singapore, seizing the fortress for the Sphere and granting the Entente control of both sides of the Strait of Malacca.

With the city taken, the Japanese fleet steamed at full speed to the north east. Eager to get out of range of Bornean airfields, the big guns of the Japanese fleet did claim a small measure of vengeance on behalf of the Hyūga by sinking a flotilla of German transport vessels.

The success in Malaya encouraged the Japanese to continue the rapid pace of their advance, as the German government found itself paralyzed by the scandal that arose out of the barely contest capture of Singapore. Rather than focusing assaults in one area at a time and giving each section of the front time to establish itself, the Japanese had shifted their strategy in favor of launching an assault all along the front.

Entire Qing divisions were surrendering on a weekly basis.

Seeking to hasten the end of the war, Japanese commanders also began to attempt encirclements that they had not had the confidence to attempt earlier in the war. In the west, Manchurian forces attempted to link with NPA forces in Zunyi to trap more than a dozen Qing divisions. Unfortunately, the NPA was not a very stout co-belligerent.

The sea and the neutral treaty port of Ningbo proved to be a more reliable anvil for the Japanese hammer.

Though the grand encirclement in the west failed to work out, a significant number of the enemy was trapped when the Korean Army captured Chengdu.

The successes all but erased the discontent of years past in Japan, and a population eager to celebrate the greatness of their nation was throwing impromptu victory parades even before the Qing surrender.

It might have been considered arrogant to celebrate with the enemy still fighting, but fighting was perhaps a generous term, as the starving, demoralized and exhausted Qing troops could do little more than slow down the Sphere’s advance.

Entering 1939, the Qing had managed to take back the territories lost to the NPA earlier, but were hard pressed to defend them against the Sphere. By February, the Qing’s only remaining power centers were in Guangxi province.

The Sphere nevertheless continued their breakneck pace, now in a race to cut off any possibility of an NPA assault that might take territory earmarked to be a part of the new Chinese republic.

The last remaining major Qing port of Guangzhou fell to Manchurian cavalry without much of a fight, and the hardcore defenders of Macau ran out of ammunition after only two days of fighting and were forced to surrender.

Germany, in a measure that most regarded as too little, too late, assumed command of the remaining Qing military and began preparations for the Qing military to pull back to a defensive line in Hai Phong.

Unfortunately for their plans, the troops mutinied against their new German commanders. They were tired of the fighting, and had no interest in fighting to defend a European colony. Pamphlets spread throughout the Qing armed forces by liberal agitators, loosely translated, read: “Die for the white man or join with your fellow yellow man.” The message stuck. The German industrial networks were seized by the Japanese, and a variety of liberal and conservative democrats were eager to fill the power void left by the exiled Pu Yi and establish a new government. The Empire was dead. The Republic was born anew.

Headlines from the Manila Bulletin

President Quezon Announces Japanese Financing for Industrialization Initiative

Emperor Hirohito Endorses Marriage of Ethiopian Prince to Japanese Noblewoman

Spanish Royalists Declare Final Victory in Civil War

Filipino Trade With Japan Targeted by German Raiders, Japan Steps Up Patrols

South Africa Rejoins the Entente

Republic of Iceland Joins Entente

Entente Declares War on Britain After Threats Against Iceland

Reed Government Signs Pact, Joins Franco-Sicilian Alliance

France Declares War on Canada After Signing Pact With Britain

Japanese Carriers Sink French Battlecruiser Near Bunguran Islands

THE COST:

The war against the Qing had been a success, but it had come at a considerable cost, both human and political.

Japan had lost tens of thousands of its own, but had inflicted nearly five times as many casualties upon the Qing.

The war with Qing China had been mostly an army affair, and thus Japan’s naval trials and triumphs were limited to the loss of the Hyūga and the sinking of the Charles Fourier. The Entente other than Japan had lost one battleship, three battlecruisers and two heavy cruisers, and had sunk six battleships, two battlecruisers and four heavy cruisers.

THE WORLD WAR:

There were certain to be more as the Entente was now embroiled in war with three separate alliances: the Mitteleuropa alliance, the Syndicalist Internationale of France, Britain, southern Italy and the Combined Syndicates, and the South Asian bloc of the Bhartiya Commune and Burma.

Japanese military occupation of China continued while preparations for elections were made. The Minseito and the Shakai Taishuto had agreed upon a resolution months past that the republican movement should be entrusted with the future of China, overruling Seiyukai concerns that a united China is too dangerous to Japanese influence. The government’s support for the republicans, bolstered by the republican sympathies of the socialists and trade unions, was unwavering. The Shadow Council would not be able to influence that decision if they tried.

(So there is actually another path where Japan can split China into two states, but both have the same leader for some reason so I am forgoing a vote and sticking with a unified China. I suspect that is what would win regardless.)

The Entente found itself at war with almost all of Europe. The only thing protecting National France and Iceland from the Internationale and Mitteleuropa is the fact that those two alliances seem likely to end up at war themselves.

Even after the victory in China, the war rages on in Asia with the South Asian socialists continuing their war with Delhi and the Germans holding on to a variety of colonies and occupying portions of Indonesia and the Australasian concession in southeastern New Guinea.

In North America, the Combined Syndicates is surrounded by the Entente, but still possess the lion’s share of American industry and population.

OUR ALLIES:

The Entente has grown in size to sixteen members, with a seventeenth of China on the way shortly. Even though the Sphere joining with the Entente has made the alliance one of the largest in the world, it is geographically disparate and does not have the same unified command structure of Mitteleuropa.

OUR FOES:

In the process of overthrowing the Qing Empire, Japan has a new host of enemies.

The Bhartiya Commune has a sizable military that combined with the Burmese military is significantly larger than that of Delhi.

The socialist government that occupies the mother country of the British Empire controls one of the largest and most modern navies in the world.

In addition to the British Republican Navy, the United States Navy, now under control of the Reed regime, boasts 12 battleships and one aircraft carrier.

Another sizable navy is held by the Commune of France, though France spends considerably more of their resources on a large army opposed to Germany.

Finally, Germany possesses the largest fleet in the world, though many of the battleships are old and susceptible to British or Japanese carriers. It has, according to our estimates, a smaller military than France, though its many allies in Eastern Europe would bolster its total strength in event of a conflict with the Internationale.

And finally, though currently neutral in the Second Great War, the Vozhd regime in Russia controls the largest army in the world with ample resources and ambition to fuel it.

Strategy Votes:

The Shadow Council thus far has not been asked to advise on the strategy used against the Qing, but now the next moves in the Great War will carry great political significance, and so the Council must choose the immediate steps we will take against our enemies.

None of these votes will preclude any of the other options, it simply will decide what we do first. Keep that in mind. No matter what, there will be an invasion of Vietnam.

VOTE #1: Amphibious Operations

The Special Naval Landing Forces were successful in their operations against Nantong, though now they are called upon to operate against other targets. The IJN has identified three potential targets for an initial operation.

Option A: Borneo

”The capture of Singapore was a good start, but the Germans occupying Borneo means that they still have the ability to cause havoc in the South China Sea. We should invade Borneo and drive them out, or at the very least capture their airfields.” - Riichi Kai, IJN Officer

Option B: New Guinea

”There are still Indonesian forces fighting in the mountains of New Guinea. We should land in the German quadrant and claim it for ourselves while also rescuing those men.” - Teruhi Yoshimoto, IJN Officer

Option C: Burma

”A landing on New Guinea is a waste of time when the Indonesians still have a foothold. Send some of the Manchurians to reinforce if you must, but our marines should be used elsewhere. Personally, I suggest a landing in Rangoon to attack the Burmese rebels there. If we seize Rangoon and Mandalay, which are the centers of socialist activity in that country, then we should be able to bring the countryside to heel, all while opening up a second front against the Bhartiya Commune.” - Koukai Hagi, IJN Officer

VOTE #2: Expeditionary Forces

The battle-ready component of the Imperial Japanese Army consists of two infantry corps of 12 divisions (the one with 10 divisions will be joined with two stray infantry divisions) and two cavalry corps, one with seven and one with six divisions. These forces are prepared to fight on any terrain in any place, and with the Entente under attack across the world, we need to consider where we should deploy these forces.

Option A: North America

”Canada is our most important ally with the largest fleet, and so we must protect them from America. Right now, they are evenly matched, yes, but the socialists will undoubtedly be able to outproduce our allies over time. We should deploy all available forces to North America and put an end to an enemy Great Power before it ever realizes its full potential.” - Hidekazu Toda, IJA Officer

Option B: India

”We must secure Asia above all else, and if the Bhartiya Commune is allowed to take India, we will be forced to spend a lot of blood and treasure dislodging them. We have to use all available resources to defeat the socialists in India as soon as possible, and put our faith in Canada’s ability to hold.” - Takeru Koku, IJA Officer

Option C: Split Forces Between Both

(One infantry corps and one cavalry corp will be sent to each of the two theaters)

”To favor North America or India over one another is to risk losing either front. We must divide our forces between both. The victories will be slower, yes, but we may save ourselves from great disaster in doing so.” - Etsuo Matsushita, IJA Officer

VOTE #3: Naval Task Force

The lion’s share of Japanese naval strength is focused in two fleets. One fleet is mainly comprised of battleships and will be held in the Pacific to defend the homeland and support landing operations. The other fleet contains the Japanese carriers. Should we dispatch this fleet to the Atlantic to assist the other Entente navies against the British and German fleets, or should we hold this fleet back as well?

Option A: Send the Japanese Atlantic Fleet

”The more of our allies capital ships that we can preserve the better. The American, British and German fleets are all concentrated in the Atlantic, and we should dispatch a fleet to help the Royal Navy. If we do not and they are destroyed, then we may be alone if the enemy comes into the Pacific in force.” - Bin Kasahara, Minseito member of the Diet

Option B: Hold Back the Fleet

”The Entente did not break their backs to help us here, and I do not see why we should be subjecting one of our own fleets to a dangerous area. If we lose our battleships in the Atlantic, then we will be unable to support our operations in the Pacific.” - Takeru Murai, Seiyukai member of the Diet

Deus · Jun 19, 2017

1. Option A - We must Secure Borneo; Not only will the Germans be severely weakened we will gain resources from the Island.
2. Option C - Both India and NA; but send both cavalry armies to NA and both infantry armies to India.

3. Option A - Securing the seas is vital for the security of the Entente as a whole. We decided to become a part of it and we should commit to the fullest. Anarcho-Syndicalism and German Imperialism is a threat to Japan too.

Deus · Jun 30, 2017

Y NO Update? @Chief Savage Man

Chief Savage Man · Jul 2, 2017

Deus said:
Y NO Update? @Chief Savage Man

rest your sphincter im busy

The Imperial Shadow Council: Japan in Darkest Hour

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emperorpenguin

Shock and Awe? More like Slack and Discord!

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