Of Ukraine's Time in Existence

[Joe Schmo]

 

[Indger]

Ukraine won't win this. Max a week or two.

 

[Georg_Friedrich]

ukraine stronk

 

[Marcus Aurelius]

I'd say more than a month. Russia will overrun them eventually in the most Russian way possible, by burying them under the bodies of poorly equipped conscripts, but it'll only be a win on paper. They have no way of actually holding a country where tens of millions of people hate them and actively want them dead, so it'll turn into a smoldering insurgent warzone supplied with NATO weapons for the forseeable future unless Putin comes to his senses.

 

[Eclipse]

The Ukrainian government and army might be beaten but the Ukrainian people will never submit.

 

[Roberts]

I feel like this has quickly turned into guerilla war against Russia, but it's hard to tell due to the propaganda coming from all sides.

 

[Who Me]

I think the sanctions will cripple russia before the Ukrainian people give up the fight.

 

[David Smittsen]

If you asked me a week ago I would have said it will be over in a month and Ukraine will be annexed or a puppet state (maybe not the western part).

I'm feeling depressed today and worried this conflict will turn Ukraine into Syria 2.0. Perpetual war for years to come. Most cities in rubble, hundreds of thousands dead. Global economy shattered.

 

[Etat]

Over 6 months simply because I think Russia will be dealing with an unconventional guerilla force for a long time yet.

As for the latter, If Putin is stupid enough to invade when even Xi Jinpin won’t say anything overtly in support, and knowing he has essentially turned the world against him, then IMO he is stupid enough to lob a missile into the neighbouring Baltic states (with which he has many issues and vacuous claims) who will all probably strengthening their border defence.

I think it might possibly devolve yet anyway. Putin is apparently targeting civilians more and more as the war progresses and it really depends on the political stomach the rest of the world has to tolerate any atrocities.  We tolerate a lot I’m ashamed to say  

 

[Mitsuru]

"Of Ukraine's Time in Existence"

Regardless of whether Ukraine gets annexed or not, Ukraine will never cease to exist.

 

[RagnarBuliwyf]

Seen a lot of armchair generals here, slack and elsewhere discussing the "poor russian tactics"/stalwart Uranian defence. 

I'd highly suggest reading this The Russian Way Of War - I was up the barracks on Tuesday and we were discussing a lot of what's going on. As much as we hate to say it the Russian doctrine is being followed and they are getting closer & causing massive casualties.  We don't see "much" Russian footage as nobody is willing to air it and it's quite blatant propaganda, but they're "winning", in whatever sense that is in 2022. 

The chances of Russia winning an overall victory this is largely dependent on the continued supplies being sent to the ukraine and how long Kyiv can hold out. Urban warfare is terrible for civilians, soldiers and invaders. (Stalingrad? Grozny? Berlin?)

Regardless, however it turns out. Ukraine will never fall. They may lose their homeland in the worst case scenario, but the Ukrainian spirit will never be destroyed. 

 

[Who Me]

I guess the real question is how long can/will the west maintain the sanctions and how long can russia hold out against them? The one thing we know is that the world will adapt and move on, will russia be able to catch back up?

 

[Benfro]

I guess the real question is how long can/will the west maintain the sanctions and how long can russia hold out against them? The one thing we know is that the world will adapt and move on, will russia be able to catch back up?

Depends how quickly the West can adjust to purchasing energy elsewhere. Without oil and natural gas exports, the Russian economy is going to suffer dramatically. The question is even if sanctions get lifted, will BP, Chevron, etc. maintain their refusal to purchase Russian goods?